By Count Friedrich von Olsen
Ask anyone who knows me: I am not a gambling man. I get more pleasure using my money for something tangible than from experiencing the ersatz excitement of losing it on a bet. Nevertheless, I have had a lifelong appreciation of horse racing. For those of you who insist on the thrill of laying your money down, you could do worse than considering my handicapping of this year’s Run for the Roses…
Ocho Ocho Ocho: Elvis Trujillo is a fine jockey, but you are plain stupid if you put any money on this horse, even at 50-1. If the race were six furlongs, he would take it, but after jumping out in front at Churchill Downs he will fade a quarter mile past the clubhouse turn and, mark my words, finish dead last…
Carpe Diem: Not a strong bet at 8-1. A winner in a lot of slow races, but outclassed in this field…
Materiality: A very good, maybe even great mount, but not very experienced. Did win in a very fast field in the Florida Derby. Worth a minor wager at 12-1…:
Tencendur: Fast and a strong finisher. Better than the 30-1 odds he has been given. If Manny Franco lets him get pinned inside, though, he doesn’t have a chance…
Danzig Moon: Forget this nag…
Mubtaahij: Ran away – by eight lengths! – from the field in a $2 million race in Dubai. But that field was slow. If Christophe Soumillion runs the right race – a big if – he has a shot…
El Kabeir: Mediocre horse at best, ridden by perhaps the best jockey, Calvin Borel…
Dortmund:  In six races, this horse has never lost. Obviously a strong contender…
Bolo: No chance…
Firing Line: Lost two photo finishes to Dortmund. And he won the Sunland Derby by 14 lengths. If jockey Gary Stevens maneuvers correctly, this horse could be right there…
Stanford: Should not be in this race…
International Star: A superb stretch runner, but with the sheer speed of this field, can Miguel Mena keep him close enough to the front so a finishing sprint matters?
Itsaknockout: Not fast enough for this field…
Keen Ice: This horse will have to run the best race of its short life to finish fifth…
Frosted: Don’t count this fast and strong-finishing colt, or jockey Joel Rosario, out…
War Story: Staying power, but insufficient speed in this field…
Mr. Z: The exact opposite of War Story: Blinding speed, but no staying power…
American Pharoah: At 5-2, clearly the favorite. Won the Arkansas Derby by eight lengths. Fast, and trained by Bob Baffert, which means he’s ready for this race. There are other fast horses running, though, including at least two as fast as he is. His status as the favorite is justified, but Victor Espinoza needs to execute and head into the home stretch with enough of a lead to shut the door on the four strong stretch runners in the field or Dortmund, who was also trained by Bob Baffert…
Upstart: This fast and strong-finishing  horse has never run a bad race in seven competitions…
Far Right: I like this horse’s political ideology, but in its second place showing in the Arkansas Derby, American Pharoah outdistanced him by eight lengths..