Action taken this week by the Los Angeles County-based transportation funding authority most closely identified with the revival of Southern California’s once-thriving rail commuting system virtually assures that the Gold Line light rail system will not be in place by the time of the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics.
The Metro Gold Line Foothill Extension Construction Authority Board on March 26 rejected Kiewit Infrastructure West’s $994 million bid to complete the extension of the Gold Line by 3.2 miles from its current terminus in Pomona to the Montclair Transit Center, which lies just east of the Los Angeles County/San Bernardino County border.
The Gold Line is the premier rail commuter system in Southern California, consisting of a lower or southern reach that runs between Union Station in downtown Los Angeles and east Los Angeles and an upper or norther reach which runs from Union Station through the foothill communities of San Gabriel Valley to Pomona.
The Gold Line represents a generation-and-a-half leap in technology over Southern California’s most pervasive but poorly utilized Metro=Link rail transportation system.
Because of its more frequent arrivals and departures on dual tracks that flow simultaneously in eastward and westward, the gold Line attracts a significant ridership which is useful in alleviating the gridlock on Southern California’s freeway system, in particular the 60, 10 and 210 freeways.
There is an intention to extend the northern reach of the Gold Line, referred to as the Foothill Gold Line, from Pomona through Claremont and across the divide between Los Angeles County and San Bernardino County to Montclair, perhaps by the summer of 2028, in time to allow tourists who will attend the Los Angeles Olympics that are to take place over the course of 14 days at that time, to stay overnight at hotels and motels in and around Claremont, Pomona, Montclair, Ontario, Chino, Upland, Rancho and Cucamonga. Those attending the Olympic games as spectators will be able to utilize the Gold Line, public transportation or the extensive parking lot at the Montclair Transit Center to travel to the Olympic games without contributing to the gridlock on the freeways and get to the competitive events on time, it was hoped. That was contingent, of course, on the Gold Line extension to Montclair being in place by Summer 2028.
A further bonus to the completion of the Gold Line to Montclair by 2028 was that it would have further sped the timetable to extending the Gold Line to Ontario Airport, perhaps so that milestone would be reached by 2033. The connection to Ontario International Airport would further the goal of relieving pressure on the freeway system, as many air travelers into Southern California would consider flying into Ontario International Airport rather than Los Angeles International Airport. The immediate connection to Los Angeles via the Gold Line, would, it was theorized, greatly diffuse traffic congestion.
Moreover, the extension of the Gold Line to Ontario would facilitate the further extension of the Gold Line east, through Rancho Cucamonga, Fontana, San Bernardino, Redlands, Yucaipa and eventually, perhaps before the 22nd Century, Palm Springs.
The 9.1 mile extension of the Gold Line from Azusa to Pomona, which took some six years to complete, from 2019 until January of this year, cost $806 million in 2019 dollars. The planned 3.2-mile extension from Pomona to Montclair will cost, in relative terms, when considering the distance, much more, roughly three times as much per linear mile. In 2024 dollars, that work was to cost $994 million, based on Kiewit Infrastructure West’s bid.
It was that escalation in the construction costs that gave the Metro Gold Line Foothill Extension Construction Authority Board pause when, during a closed-door executive session on Wednesday, it took up a discussion of Kiewit’s proposal to complete the next major phase of the system.
That discussion had been prompted by numerous considerations, one of which was the unanticipated expense contained in Kiewit’s bid.
Construction Authority CEO Habib Balian recognized and had stated publicly that the Pomona-to-Montclair was going to prove more expensive than the just-concluded Azusa-to-Pomona leg of the line, at what was anticipated to be 180 percent to 190 percent of the cost of the previous phase. In this way, the construction on the 3.2-mile stretch was projected to run to somewhere between Construction Authority CEO Habib Balian recognized and had stated publicly that the Pomona-to-Montclair was going to prove more expensive than the just-concluded Azusa-to Pomona leg of the line, at what was anticipated to be 180 percent to 190 percent of the cost of the previous phase. In this way, the construction on the 3.2-mile stretch was projected to run to somewhere between $510,171,000 to $538,515,000. After advertising for proposals,, the Gold Line Construction Authority received only one bid, from Kiewit, which had partnered with the Gold Line Construction Authority on the previous phase. The $994 million was startling, at roughly 189.7 percent of what it anticipated, even considering inflation.
In the weeks running up to last week’s action, the board had taken stock of a number of factors that might result in an escalation of the cost.
Ken Simonson, the chief economist of the Associated General Contractors of America, had briefed the board on factors that would push the cost of construction going forward into the stratosphere. Beginning in 2025, a host of pressures will act on the American economy and the building sector, according to Simonson, not the least of which is President Trump’s effort to reposition the United States in the world and to reassert itself as an economic power. Without weighing in one way or the other about whether Trump will be successful, Simonson said short term increases in prices will inevitably result from the president’s actions.
“Construction is more dependent than most industries on imported materials and foreign-born workers. Imposition of tariffs and limits on immigration or expanded deportation measures will drive up costs, snarl supply chains, slow projects, and potentially lead to project cancellations,” Simonson told the board. “Construction spending and employment will continue to increase at a moderate rate. But there is much more uncertainty about which market segments and geographic areas will thrive or dive in ’25.”
It is not likely that the Trump Administration, given its stated goals and commitments, will reduce the costs of carrying out construction, Simonson said.
“The Trump administration can enable faster and more efficient construction of infrastructure and private structures through selective repeal of regulations and better streamlining and coordination of project reviews and approvals.” Such cost reductions could only come about, Simonson said, if “the administration allow waivers from tariffs or immigration restrictions for construction projects that otherwise would be unduly delayed or cost-burdened.” He was not confident that would come about, Simonson said.
During the March 26 closed session, the board, considering the higher costs and risk of financial overcommitment in conjunction with the light-rail project, it voted, “unanimously and with regret” to reject Kiewit’s $994 million bid, which was something approaching 54 percent higher or approximately $350 million more than the $645.45 million the authority had estimated design and construction of the project should run and for which the authority had set the project’s budget.
A practical outcome of the Metro Gold Line Foothill Extension Construction Authority Board’s March 26 vote is that the eventual extension of the light rail travel system into San Bernardino County will not come before the end of the current decade.
The Gold Line is considered by those most knowledgeable about transportation issues in Southern California to be the best option there is to overcome the legacy of Alfred P. Sloan, the president of General Motors from 1923 and then the chairman of the board of General Motors from 1937 until his retirement in 1956.
Sloan systematically pursued policies aimed at buying up and ultimately closing down the commuter rail and street car systems in the United States’ largest cities and metropolitan areas. This included forcing the ultimate demise of the Los Angeles/Southern California Red Car Line, which featured trains serving what was then nearly the entirety of Los Angeles County, northern Orange County and eastern San Bernardino County, from Santa Monica all the way east to Mentone and Redlands.
Efforts to replicate what existed with the Red Car Line in Southern California with MetroLink have failed, as ridership on the system, with trains on a single track that run for the most part at a frequency of no more than one per hour at a fare of $9, is sparse at best and often nil. The Gold Line, on the other hand, which runs on two separate tracks dedicated to passenger transport alone from Downtown Los Angeles to Pomona, uses lighter cars and more fuel-efficient engines, with staggered departures and arrivals of as little as every eight minutes for a fare of $2. The Gold Line is thus heavily used, and its cars are near their carrying capacity on most runs.
The Gold Line Construction Authority is contemplating rebidding the project, perhaps as early as June of this year. Tacitly, the authority has conceded that the completion of the line to Ontario International Airport is not going to occur for a decade or more.