By M.R. Wainwright
San Bernardino Mayor Helen Tran’s once-promising tenure has rapidly deteriorated, marked by political missteps, financial woes, and growing opposition from within the city and beyond.
Elected on a platform of bold leadership and transformative change, Tran initially positioned herself as a strong leader capable of uniting a divided city council and addressing San Bernardino’s most pressing issues. However, her aggressive approach and inexperience have led to a series of miscalculations that now threaten to derail her political career.
The situation took a significant turn in February 2023, two months after she took office, when Tran declared a state of emergency regarding the city’s homelessness crisis. Despite the urgency suggested by this declaration, little meaningful action followed. This lack of progress contrasts with significant and substantive efforts made by San Bernardino County, where a homeless committee led by supervisors Curt Hagman and Joe Baca Jr. have pushed for action to effectively address the issue.
In an attempt to keep pace with the county, San Bernardino Acting City Manager Rochelle Clayton announced the formation of a new subcommittee within the city to focus on homelessness. According to insiders at City Hall, however, this move appears more symbolic than substantive, and they have suggested it was designed to appease Tran rather than implement tangible solutions.
Adding to the complexity, the mayor’s decision to involve residents who lack discretion, such as former city-appointed commissioner Sharon Negrete, in gathering signatures for the recall of council members Shorett and Sanchez has backfired. The specific use of these residents, who were not careful to maintain confidentiality about their involvement, has further eroded confidence in her leadership and strategy.
The recall efforts against San Bernardino City Council members Shorett and Sanchez have drawn in two notable political operative groups: Uplift+Empower, led by the experienced Kareem Gongora and ambitious newcomer Gracie Torres, and Move the Needle Campaigns LLC, run by Juan Andrea Villa. Both groups are indirectly supporting the recall, using it as an opportunity to reshape the local political landscape in a way that could influence future council decisions. While Tran is publicly keeping her distance from the recall effort to avoid being directly associated with its outcome, she is subtly aligning herself with influential figures like Gongora, Torres, and Villa. This strategic distancing allows her to benefit from their aggressive tactics without overtly tying herself to the recall. Should the recall succeed, Tran could still claim a tactical victory. If it fails, however, she would not be seen as weakened or directly involved in the loss, preserving her political standing.
Adding to the turmoil is the upcoming closed-session performance evaluation of acting City Manager Rochelle Clayton, scheduled for August 21. While council members and Mayor Tran have publicly agreed that Clayton is doing well in keeping the city afloat, the reality is that Clayton’s primary success has been maintaining stability until new council members take office later this year. One of the critical issues Clayton has to deal with is the city’s handling of homelessness funds, which have largely gone unused. Despite the city’s current consideration of funding a 140-bed homeless shelter, it remains uncertain about how to proceed, largely due to Tran’s conflicting interests and reliance on advice from close associates. Complicating matters further, Tran continues to dangle the carrot of a permanent city manager appointment in front of Clayton, hoping to secure her loyalty, even if it risks sabotaging Clayton’s relationships with some council members.
A huge question looms: Who are those closest to Tran giving her controversy-laden advice that seems calculated to benefit them, whoever they are, at the sacrifice of Tran’s future? These unnamed figures, who have strategically avoided appearing as campaign contributors on financial disclosure forms, are thought to be guiding Tran in ways that protect their interests while leaving her political career in jeopardy. Their influence is palpable, yet their identities remain deliberately obscured, raising concerns about transparency and accountability within Tran’s administration.
Adding fuel to the fire are rumors of hypocrisy surrounding Tran’s actions, especially given her background as a human resources division manager with San Bernardino from 2013 to 2016, San Bernardino’s human resources director from 2017 until very early 2020 and West Covina’s human resources director from early 2020 until 2022. Despite her expertise in the area of municipal personnel, it is alleged that Tran has put city staff into potentially compromising positions by bypassing acting City Manager Rochelle Clayton in dealing directly with some city employees. This approach has garnered mixed reviews, with some accusing her of overstepping her role in the weak-mayor council structure and attempting to become the de facto city manager. Tran’s clear understanding of the city manager’s role, coupled with her perceived overreach, has led to growing concerns about her leadership style.
As the economy continues to spiral downward, San Bernardino faces declining revenues, and Tran may soon be forced to take a salary reduction as a good-faith effort to show the city’s labor groups that the time for tightening the city’s coffers has arrived. The current and upcoming fiscal year budgets will likely require difficult decisions, and Tran’s lobbying for special pet projects may not be sustainable. With new council members already meeting with current ones, it is becoming clear that the realities of governing are far more complex than Tran led them to believe. As someone close to City Hall put it, “Tran might find that a ‘bird in hand’—stabilizing the city she has now—is worth more than the two in the bush she’s been chasing with her lofty ambitions, especially with ill-centered advice around holdings and investments.”
The November 2024 election is expected to further reshape San Bernardino’s political landscape, with local developer Scott Beard emerging as an influential figure. Beard, who has been closely monitoring the city’s political dynamics for years, sees an opportunity to bring focus and leadership to a council that has long been adrift. However, Tran’s increasingly strained relationships with the council and local donors, combined with her shifting focus towards state-level ambitions, suggest that her influence in San Bernardino is rapidly diminishing.
Tran’s reliance on a close circle of associates—who deliberately avoid contributing to her campaign to stay off financial disclosure forms—only adds to the perception that her administration is plagued by conflicts of interest. It is expected that these individuals will contribute significantly through bundled donations when Tran eventually runs for state office, further complicating the web of interests surrounding her leadership. But as these figures continue to pull the strings behind the scenes, the looming question remains: are they steering Tran toward success, or are they leading her down a path to political self-destruction?
As San Bernardino approaches a pivotal election, the effectiveness of the recall efforts and the opportunities highlighted by the local operatives behind them will play crucial roles in determining the city’s future leadership. Whether Tran can navigate these challenges and retain her position, or whether new leaders like Scott Beard will emerge to steer the city in a different direction, remains to be seen. One thing is certain: the political landscape of San Bernardino is shifting, and Mayor Helen Tran is at the center of the storm, with those closest to her either helping her weather it—or leading her straight into it.