As Two Republicans Are Running For Daylight

By Richard Hernandez & Mark Gutglueck
The Democrats’ political domination of California has created a paradoxical, indeed absurdly confounding, circumstance in which Republicans are now on the brink of seizing gubernatorial control in Sacramento as the consequence of a string of Democratic victories both at the polls and within the halls of governmental power. For good measure, the Republican administration of President Donald Trump, in control of the nation’s machinery of governance emanating from Washington, D.C., is now putting its thumb on the scale of shared justice and politics, in an effort to ensure the gubernatorial transformation in favor of the GOP.
California is a blue, that is to say Democratic, state through and through.
Of California’s total 23,206,519 registered voters, 10,396,792 or 44.8 percent are Democrats, while 5,896,203 or 25.41 percent are Republicans. Those who have no party affiliation number 5,336,441 or 23 percent, a number not terribly far off from that of the Republicans. The remaining 1,577,083 voters or 6.8 percent are members of the American Independent, Green, Libertarian, Peace & Freedom or other more obscure parties.
Despite comprising more than one-quarter of the state’s voters, the Republicans hold only 77 percent of the members of the U.S. House of Representatives from California are Democrats as forty of California’s 52 Congressional seats are held by Democrats and 12 by Republicans. Both of California’s U.S. Senators are Democrats. The governor is a Democrat, as is the lieutenant governor, the California Attorney General, the California Secretary of State, the insurance commissioner, the superintendent of public schools, the state treasurer and the state controller. The California legislature, which meets at the statehouse in Sacramento, consists of the upper legislative house, the California Senate, and the lower legislative house, the California Assembly. A supermajority – more than two-thirds – of the California Senate, are Democrats, consisting of 30 of the body’s 40 members. Likewise, the Assembly is overwhelmingly dominated by the Democratic Party, with which 60 of its members are affiliated, while 20 of its 80 total seats are held by Republicans.
Last summer, President Trump, relatively fresh off his 2024 political comeback and his January 20, 2025 return to power in which his Republican Party held narrow but nevertheless controlling majorities in both houses of Congress, grew nervous about his prospect for hanging onto his position of power in the aftermath of the November 2026 midterm election. He accordingly appealed to the state legislatures of those states with Republican governors and Republican majority state legislatures to use their control over the political districting processes to redraw those states’ Congressional electoral maps to ensure that the Republican members of the House of Representatives in those states not only remain in office but that the chances of Republican challengers of Democrat members of the House of Representatives in those states seen their chance of victory enhanced. Most notably, Texas Governor Greg Abbot and the Texas State Legislature responded positively to President Trump’s invitation, doing essentially as he asked. The newly approved Texas Congressional District Map shifted districts in such a way that, with all things being equal and no great political surprises or unanticipated scandals rocking any of the incumbents, Texas is likely to have five more Republican congressmen/congresswoman and five fewer Democratic congresswomen/congressmen post November 2026 than at present.
In response, California Governor Gavin Newsom and his overwhelming political support network came through for their party. Saying he was going to “fight fire with fire,” Newsom coordinated putting together a redistricting plan for the Golden State which was meant to counterbalance what Abbot and his cohorts in Texas had done for President Trump. The map drafted by Democratic cartologist Paul Mitchell at Governor Newsom’s behest which the Democratic majority California state legislature put before California’s voters as Proposition 50 in a special election in November 2025 recontoured California’s Congressional districts in a way by which California, again if there are no extraordinary developments that harm incumbents otherwise, is likely to see the 40-to-12 ratio of Democratic congressional members to Republican congressional members change to a 45-to-7 ratio favoring Democrats. Despite fierce Republican efforts to prevent Proposition 50 from gaining passage, it passed by an overwhelming vote of 4,116,998 or 64.42 percent to 4,116,998 or 35.58 percent.
In 2026, Governor Newsom, who was first elected in 2018, will be termed out of office under California’s term limit law. His two terms in office follow the two terms in office of his Democrat predecessor, Jerry Brown, who had two previous terms as governor in the 1970s and early 1980s, before California had term limits.
At present, going back 15 years – not quite a generation but an eternity in political years – California has had Democrat governors, the last Republican being Arnold Schwarzenegger, who had gained officer as a result of the recall of another Democrat governor, Gray Davis, in 2003.
California at present has voter registration numbers which lopsidedly favor the Democratic Party. As of December 30, 2025, of the 23,092,098 registered voters in the state, 10381,340 or 44.96 percent were declared Democrats while 5,804,699 or 25.14 percent affiliated with the Republican Party. Throughout the state, there were 5,231,189 or 22.6 percent who expressed no party preference whatsoever and 1,674,870 or 7.25 percent who were members of the American Independent, Green, Libertarian, Peace & Freedom or other more obscure parties.
It thus seemed that Democrats had inside tracks in whatever race was to materialize for Newsom’s successor. The outcome of the Proposition 51 appeared a bellwether that would predict that in the November 2026 gubernatorial contest, any Republican who went up against the Democrat standard bearer would be likely to finish well off the pace.
Nevertheless, even before Newsom placed Proposition ? On the ballot, a literal plethora of Democrats were jumping into the contest, crowding the Democratic field virtually beyond belief. A substantial number of them had impressive name recognition. They included former Congresswoman Katie Porter, former Congressman/former California Attorney General/former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigossa, billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, State Superintendent of Schools Tony Thurmond, former State Controller Betty Yee, California Attorney General Rob Bonta, former State Senator Toni Atkins, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalkis, Congressman Eric Swalwell, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and physicist Matthew Chase Levy. In addition, at least 18 other Democrats, all of whom had less notoriety, were actively militating toward qualifying their candidacies for governor.
Simultaneously, a dozen Republicans were either expressing interest in making a run or were pursuing doing so with some degree of seriousness. Only a few of those, however – Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco – had a significant degree of recognition.
As time has progressed, Bonta, Atkins and Kounalkis opted to drop out of the race. That left Mahan, Levy, Swalwell, Yee, Thurmond, Steyer, Villaraigossa, Becerra and Porter in the race, all of whom have qualified their candidacies and are now official candidates in the June primary. They will appear on the ballot with 15 other Democrats – Akinyemi Agbede, Mohammad Arif, Larry Azevedo, Carolina Buhler, Louis De Barraicua, Sophia Edum-a-Sam, Derek Grasly, Joel Jacob, Gary Kidgell, Barack Shaw, Thunder Parley, Raji Rab, Satish Rao, Scott Shields and Erin Zezulak.
In addition, on the ballot are ten Republicans other than Bianco and , a Libertarian, a Peace & Freedom Party member and 23 candidates who claim no party affiliation.
With a logjam of 24 Democrats vying in June, recent polling indicates that they are collectively diluting their party’s vote such that no single Democrat is polling above the top two Republicans in the race.
Utilizing the most recent polling done by five independent sources – UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, the Citrin Center, Emerson College, the Public Policy Institute of California and Independent Voter News – and averaging those results from surveys completed March 18, march 11, March 11, February 26 and February 23, Hilton appears to be leading among all candidates with an average of 15.6 percent of those surveyed choosing him, while Bianco is in second place at 14.6 percent. They are followed by Swalwell at 14 percent even, Porter at 11.4 percent and Steyer with 10.4 percent. Thereafter, the field drops back precipitously. Closest behind Steyer is Becerra at 4.2 percent, followed by Villaraigosa with 3.8 percent. Mahan is running in eighth place at 3 percent even.
There is, of course, some variance between the polls. In two of them, the Emerson College poll done on March 11, Swalwell is shown as the leader of all candidates – in first place – with 17 percent even, putting him ahead of both Bianco and Hilton. In the Independent Voter News poll done on February 23, Stalwell was shown as being the favorite of 18 percent of voters, which put him, in that survey, in second place behind Bianco, who was way out in front of everyone at 23 percent. In two of the polls, the Berkeley poll done on March 18 and the Citrin Center poll on March 11, Swalwell and Porter are shown to be in a dead heat with one another at 13 percent each and 11 percent each, respectively, though in those two polls they are both equaled or bettered by Hilton and Bianco. In the March 11 Citrin Center poll, it is noteworthy that Steyer leads both Walwell and Porter with 13 percent.
Assuming that the averaging of all five polls is the best actual reflection of where California’s voters at present stand overall with regard to the candidates for governor, the Democrats, individually and as a party, are in trouble. Under California’s open primary electoral rules, in the race for state seats such as governor, the two top vote-getters, irrespective of party, qualify for the final run-off in November. In this way, two Democrats can go head-to-head for governor or two Republicans can be the only candidates for governor in November. If the current trend holds, that latter scenario is very likely. If that is the case, the door will be closed on all of the Democrats seeking the governorship, and the occupant of 1526 H Street in Sacramento, the California Governor’s Mansion in 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030 will be a Republican.
It is doubtful whether Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff, or Hilton, who was born in England and was the director of strategy for the British Prime Minister David Cameron before he came to the United States and became a naturalized Ameerican citizen and went to work as conservative political commentator and pundit For Fox News, would be able to be elected California governor in a one-on-one race against any of the leading Democrats this year – Yee, Villaraigosa, Thurmond, Swalwell, Steyer, Porter, Mahan, Becerra or even Levy, who lacks the name recognition of the others.
Still, if the Republican Party can manage to have its two leading candidates take first and second place, even it they manage no more than 16 percent or 17 percent or 19 percent in the primary, it will succeed in taking executive branch control of California.
Across the country, in Washington, D.C., the Trump Administration, which has a certain level of enmity for California beyond that reserved for most of President Trump’s perceived political foes, has taken notice.
It would appear, at least at present, that the Democrat most likely to be able to prevent the 2026 Gubernatorial Election from being a contest between two Republicans is the currently leading Democrat, Swalwell.
This has presented an opportunity for the Trump Administration.
From January of 2010 until December of 2013, Swalwell was a member of the Dublin City Council. In 2012, he challenged longtime Democratic Congressman Pete Stark in California’s 15th Congressional District. Stark and Swalwell, both Democrats finished first and second in that year’s primary and faced each other in the November run-off.
During Swalwell’s 2012 congressional campaign, Fang Fang, a Chinese national who was living in the United States and using the first name of Christine while attending California State University East Bay where she became president of both the Chinese Student Association and the campus chapter of Asian Pacific Islander American Public Affairs, attended his political fundraisers. Fang reportedly engaged in “bundling” donations to Swalwell. Bundling involves collecting contributions from multiple donors and submitting them to a political campaign as a single donation or handing the money off to a political action committee or political action committees, which then pass the money along to a specific politician or elected official.
Swalwell defeated Stark in the November 2012 election and was sworn in as a congressman on December 3, 2013, the day he resigned as a member of the Dublin City Council.
In 2014, Swalwell was challenged by a Republican, Hugh Bussell. A key fundraiser for Swalwell was Fang, who allegedly funneled money which originated with the People’s Republic of China, into Swalwell’s congressional reelection fund. Swalwell, whose congressional assignments included being a member of the House Judiciary Committee, the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and the lead Democrat representative on the Intelligence Committee’s subcommittee for oversight of the CIA, at one point acceded to appointing an intern into a position in his office at Fang’s suggestion.
Swalwell’s 15th Congressional District includes a large Chinese American population.
At some point no later than mid-2015 and quite possibly earlier, the FBI became aware that Fang, who had involved herself in fundraising for a number of up-and-coming American politicians, including Congresswoman Ro Khanna, Congresswoman Judy Chu and former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, was, in fact, an agent working on behalf of the People’s Republic of China. As the FBI was closing in on her, she abruptly left the United States and returned to Mainland China.
Previously, as a member of the House Judiciary Committee, Swalwell was among the members of Congress looking into the January 6, 2021 takeover of the U.S. Capitol Building by Donald Trump’s supporters who were alleged to have and in some cases convicted of attempting block the certification of Joseph Biden’s victory over President Trump in the November 2020 election. This extended to Swalwell serving as a “manager” meaning a congressional impeachment action prosecutor against the president in seeking to remove him from office for his alleged role in the January 6, 2021 U.S. Capitol siege. As such, Swalwell is persona non grata with President Trump, members of his family, including Eric Trump, and the Trump Administration. Since 2020, members of President Trump’s support network, including Eric Trump, have suggested that Swalwell is a security risk and that his office had been permeated with Chinese Communist spies, and that he should be relieved of House Intelligence Committee assignments.
Those accusations led to a House Ethics Committee investigation into Swalwell which dragged on from 2021 until 2023, augmented by an FBI probe into the matter, which included inquiries that had been taking place as early as 2015 with regard to Swalwell’s interaction with Fang and Fang’s access to Swalwell and members of his congressional staff. The Ethics Committee investigation was concluded without turning up any palpable evidence that Swalwell had violated House rules, was engaged in any illicit fundraising efforts involving Fang, that he had willingly or unwillingly passed classified information to Fang or otherwise engaged in criminal activity or wrongdoing.
With Swalwell now the leader among the current crop of Democrat candidates for governor, FBI Director Kash Patel has reportedly already opened a redirected investigation into Swalwell. That investigation included close re-readings of FD-302 documents memorializing in narrative form FBI agents’ interviews with witnesses knowledgeable about the interaction between Swalwell and Fang as well as the documentation relating to Fang’s fundraising activity on behalf of Swalwell which are already in the FBI files. While the FD-302s encapsulate the material upon which an overall conclusion that there is no smoking gun to implicate Swalwell as spy for Communist China was reached, there are some potentially embarrassing details laid out in those documents that might be used to suggest the congressman was a dupe who was used by Fang, a People’s Republic of China Ministry of State Security operative, to allow her to get close to information dealt with by the House Intelligence Committee, and that she did so by winning his confidence through the provision of bundled money, some of which was put up by the Chinese government.
That information, if spread about in press and media accounts, could, Patel and other members of the Trump Administration believe, result in enough of those who are now favorably disposed toward Swalwell to rethink their support of him in the upcoming June election, thereby keeping him from capturing first or second in the voting, and allowing Hilton and Bianco to capture the two top spots, resulting in a run-off between two members of the GOP in November, which will guarantee the Golden State is headed by a Republican governor over the next four years.
Stalwell’s campaign did not offer a direct response to questions about the timing of Justice Department’s resurrection of the investigation in the days and weeks following his climb to the top of the heap of Democrats vying for the gubernatorial post in California. His website characterized President Trump as ”the worst president in our history,” stating he saw his job as keeping him “out of our lives.”