By Count Friedrich von Olsen
The first week of May is approaching, which means, of course, the Running of the Roses is on tap, the 142nd Kentucky Derby. No, I am not a betting man, except when I get in proximity to a baccarat table. But I love to watch those colts run. When I was a young man, I would find myself at Ascot. Next week, about midweek, I will check into the Hilton Garden Inn in Downtown Louisville so I can spend two days touring various horse farms and be in place in the stands near the clubhouse turn when the crowd breaks into its rendition of “My Old Kentucky Home…”
Here is my estimation of the field…
It is hard to dislike Doug O’Neill’s Nyquist, which won all five races as a 2-year-old including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. At the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park he won convincingly, beating the best horse in the east, undefeated Mohaymen, going away. But there are questions. Mr. O’Neill has emphasized long gallops over speed bursts in training. This might be a sound strategy, if it works, since there are doubts Nyquist can sustain himself the full 1¼ mile distance…
Outwork and Danzing Candy represent the closest thing to blazing speed in this year’s race. Danzing won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, and Danzing Candy, won the San Felipe at Santa Anita. If one or the other of them went full bore from the gate while the other hung back, and if the rest of the field tried to keep up with the rabbit, then the more patient jockey might guide his mount to victory with a blinding close. This is not likely to happen…
Mohaymen, which this winter was imagined by everyone to be the best horse in the race, can run hard early and cruise through the mid-race and close fast, which could prove a winning strategy. Does Jockey Junior Alvarado have the discipline to execute that race plan with all of the jockeying that will be going on around him? Maybe.But Mohaymen lost – lost convincingly – to Nyquist at Gulfstream and that is hard to forget…
Gun Runner is a solid horse, with good speed that is probably sustainable over the full 1¼ miles. Can Jockey Florent Geroux position him so he doesn’t get hemmed in early and so Gun Runner doesn’t breathe in too much dust during the first part of the race? That is a major consideration…
Exaggerator, with Kent Desormeaux aboard, should not be counted out. This horse has demonstrated in several races that it has an impressive mid-race move that could leave it out front at the mile mark. If there are no strong closers within striking distance, Desormeaux might be able to hold all challengers for the lead off…
One strong closer is Creator, who astounded everyone by going from dead last to first at the Arkansas Derby. If this horse is not hemmed in and less than two lengths back at the 1 mile and one eighth mark, watch out…
Suddenbreakingnews, which was second at the Arkansas Derby, was closing just as hard as Creator…
A third fast closer is Brody’s Cause, which passed three-fourths of the field to win the Blue Grass Stakes. Trojan Nation, as a maiden made a strong move and finished second in the Wood.
Mor Spirit, trained by Bob Baffert, has been making steady and impressive improvement. Add to that the advantage of being ridden by Gary Stevens, and this could be a horse that gets into, and stays, in the thick of it..
Mo Tom? From the same sire as Nyquist, but the best this nag could do was fourth at the Louisiana Derby. If they change the rules so that the pony going backwards fastest wins, Mo Tom might be the best one in the field…
Whitmore finished third at the Arkansas Derby against some stiff competion. Nothing spectacular about this horse. Yet, if Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. pushes him to run his race, you could see this horse finishing third or maybe second…
Lani bears watching. First at the UAE Derby, though far out of it at the Hyacinth Stakes…
Destin, ridden by Javier Castellano, was first at the Sam F. Davis Stakes and first at the Tampa Bay Derby. and first at
Shagaf finished first at Gotham…
Tom’s Ready was second in the Louisiana Derby and second at Pinnacle Peak.
Majesto was second at the Florida Derby at 149.11
Adventist was third at Gotham, third at Wood Memorial and third at Withers Stakes. I somehow like the name…
My prediction: There will not be a triple crown winner this year…